# Lions and Tigers and Bears (Rambling about probability again)

If you’re any good at teaching probability, you may want to just stop reading for at least a week. I’m on a probability kick as I head into introducing probability in AP Statistics.

I wrote earlier in the week puzzling through what to do about probability in my AP Statistics reasons. There are a variety of problems, but my biggest frustration is that I can’t figure out the problem. That doesn’t usually happen to me. When a lesson goes badly, I usually know which part. When my students aren’t getting it, I can usually narrow down where the disconnect is and then focus in on that. And with probability I just…don’t know. And it kills me.

I mentioned my drama to a coworker, who jokingly asked if I’d heard of formative assessment (novel!). I have, obviously, but my issue seems to come that they are able to do it until we mix things together, they take a test, and it all goes to hell.

So there are two major issues at play:

• I need to figure out where they are not understanding so that I can make a plan to fix it
• I need to give them ample time to practice.

I struggle with the last one. Sometimes I feel like I’m “wasting” class time if they just have a work day for their survey project, and yet I think they’ve gotten more out of really doing their surveys (I have a couple groups taking a true SRS of the school, despite my caution not to, and rocking it). So I need to give them probability they can do (you know, because I taught them so they can actually understand it), and then I need to shut up, step back and let them practice doing it.

I think that might look like two things:

1. Letting them play with some pretty open-ended probability (like Fire!) and then talk about it, without strings attached or to prove a point. I did this last year somewhat when we would play Jackpot and just see what we got. No calculations, just let’s see. I also think Ben Orlin’s stories are awesome–go check them out now, and thanks Planting Ideas for the tip! I’m posting one on my class blog Friday.
2. Giving them AP and pre-AP style problems on probability and letting them work those out too, maybe first in groups or pairs and then individually.

Oh, and back off my schedule. My pacing is good. I have enough time to review. Matching my own stupid calendar, which no one but me cares about, does not get me bonus points. Or even a cookie. If my goal is for my students to learn Statistics, and ultimately pass a college level exam, that’s where I need to go, not matching a timetable I made up.

What’s your best tip when you’re struggling with a topic? Any brilliant (or even decent) ideas about how I can help my students understand the basics of probability?